Custodes Futurifor the advancement of humanity

Technological factor, barrier 2 of 7

Electricity access

Electricity access is still incomplete, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Evidence

  • Access. The Tracking SDG7: Energy Progress Report 2026 found about 92% of the world has basic electricity access, leaving about 655 million people without it in 2024. 89 million people gained access that year, but population growth meant the total fell by only about 11 million.
  • Where it is lacking. About 86% of those without power (563 million people) live in sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Clean cooking. Around 2 billion people still lack access to clean cooking, which links directly to the household air pollution deaths in the environmental factor.

Why it matters: Electricity is a precondition for nearly every other technology, including lighting for evening study, refrigeration for vaccines, and internet access.

Proposed and experimental methods

Methods that are proposed, under trial, approved in some places, or tried and then failed. Each shows a stage label and an evidence rating. A stage label shows how far a method has progressed, not whether it works. The stage labels are explained on the technological factor page.

  • Pay-as-you-go solar used as "digital collateral" for loans (Early trial, B). Solar home systems sold on installment can be remotely locked if payments stop, and lenders can use this lockout to secure other loans. In a randomized trial in Uganda with school-fee loans secured by solar home systems, digital collateral cut default by about 19 percentage points, raised the lender's rate of return by about 49 points, and increased school enrollment and education spending without harming household balance sheets (Gertler, Green, and Wolfram, 2024). Take-up was lower for secured than unsecured loans (44% versus 51%) (Berkeley IBSI, n.d.).
  • Mission 300 continental electrification push (Approved but not scaled, C). The World Bank and African Development Bank aim to connect 300 million Africans to electricity by 2030 through national energy compacts that set reforms and attract private capital, and 29 governments had endorsed compacts by September 2025 (World Bank, 2025). The banks reported in June 2026 that over 50 million people had been connected since July 2023 and that 36 countries had adopted compacts (Xinhua, 2026). These are self-reported counts, and no independent evaluation of welfare effects has been published.
  • Not shown to help: off-grid solar microgrids for broader economic gains (Early trial, B). In a randomized trial across 81 unelectrified communities and 1,281 households in Uttar Pradesh, India, solar microgrids raised household electrification by 29 to 36 percentage points where installed and cut private kerosene spending by about 20%, but had no systematic effects on savings, spending, business creation, women's work time, or study time (Aklin et al., 2017).
  • Not shown to help: subsidized household grid connections in rural areas (Large trial, B). In a randomized trial with 2,289 unconnected households in western Kenya, about 1% connected at the full price of $398, while free connections raised take-up by 95 percentage points (J-PAL, n.d.), but newly connected households used very little electricity and there were no meaningful medium-run economic or noneconomic effects (Lee, Miguel, and Wolfram, 2020). In India, a national program that electrified rural villages meaningfully expanded access but had limited economic effects after 3 to 5 years, with full electrification reducing welfare in small villages and yielding a 33% internal rate of return only in large villages (Burlig and Preonas, 2024).

Sources cited on this page

  1. Aklin, M., Bayer, P., Harish, S. P., & Urpelainen, J. (2017). Does basic energy access generate socioeconomic benefits? A field experiment with off-grid solar power in India. Science Advances, 3(5), e1602153. link B Moderate
  2. Burlig, F., & Preonas, L. (2024). Out of the darkness and into the light? Development effects of rural electrification. Journal of Political Economy, 132(9), 2937. link B Moderate
  3. Gertler, P., Green, B., & Wolfram, C. (2024). Digital collateral. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 139(3), 1713-1766. link B Moderate
  4. Lee, K., Miguel, E., & Wolfram, C. (2020). Experimental evidence on the economics of rural electrification. Journal of Political Economy, 128(4), 1523-1565. link B Moderate

Every source for this factor is listed on the technological factor page.